Here come the Rays

 October baseball is upon us, FINALLY. It has been too long since the Boston Red Sox have been in a postseason matchup, 4 years to be exact. The Sox organization is more than looking forward to their first playoff game since the 2009 season. 

After a horrible 2011 collapse and a 2012 season that has all but been swept under the rug the 2013 Red Sox have home field advantage throughout the playoffs after earning the best record in the AL and the AL’s victory in the All Star game. The first matchup comes in the form of a familiar foe.

The Tampa Bay Rays.

Now at first glance some may think this will be an easy matchup but at closer look these two teams are a whole lot more tightly matched up than you would think.

The Red Sox won the AL East and the Rays were 5 ½ games behind and the Red Sox won the season series winning 12 and losing 7 out of the 19 head to head games. Now these numbers seem very promising for the home team but the Rays are riding a wave of momentum as they have won 2 essentially one game playoff games on the road to get here and have won 10 of their last 12 just to stay alive. Those 12 wins could have easily gone the other way as 6 of those were won in the 9^th inning or later with 3 of them being walk-off wins.

The pitching will be key to coming out on top and getting to the next round. With that these two teams have seen each other so many times they have plenty of film to watch pitchers and have faced them enough to essentially know what to expect from each guy that takes the mound.

Both teams had top 10 ERAs with Tampa Bay slightly besting Boston overall with a 3.74 compared to a 3.79 with starting pitching being just as close, Tampa had a 3.81 and Boston a 3.84 and bullpens were just as tightly matched up with Tampa 3.59 and Boston a 3.70. 

Head to head matchups were just as close with the Sox owning a 2.95 ERA against the Rays and the Rays owning a 3.54 over the Sox. This is where the home field advantage comes into play where the Red Sox have a 3.57 ERA at Fenway and a 4.03 away and John Lackey , our game 2 starter owns a 2.47 ERA in front of the home crowd. Even with Jon Lester, game 1 starter, going 13 starts since the All Star break and maintaining a 2.57 ERA in those 13 starts both teams total  ERA since the All Star break are dead even at 3.62. 

If I were a betting man I would definitely not make a decision based on pitching matchups and numbers, these are just way too close to call.

Plate presence and patience will win this series. Head to head neither team hit tremendously well with the Red Sox only hitting .208 but the Rays only hit .232 against Boston. Overall numbers Boston dominated with a .277 average and 853 runs scored while Tampa only hit .257 and only plated 700 runs. In the 19 face-offs between the 2 teams the run differential was only 14 and Tampa had some serious trouble driving in the runs as they were held to a .158 average with runners in scoring position. Head to head the Red Sox averaged 3.73 runs per game and Tampa averaged 2.78 while as season Boston averaged 5.26 and Tampa Bay averaged 4.29 runs per game.

It appears that this potential 5 game series will not be an offensive masterpiece but will have its share of defensive spectacles and some pitching duels.

I am not one for betting, especially on teams that I want to win (I always feel as though I may jinx them), or make predictions but I will be wholeheartedly rooting on the Boston Red Sox to continue playing deep into October.

It feels great to have postseason baseball back! 

Photo credit: AP/Charles Krupa